SPEAKERS
Keynote Speakers
Michael Bode
Michael Bode is Professor of Applied & Computational Mathematics at Queensland University of Technology. He uses modelling, optimisation, and decision theory to study ecological and environmental decision-making. Much of his work focuses on conservation problems in which limited data, uncertainty, and institutional constraints shape what management can realistically achieve. He has worked on topics including Antarctic governance, marine spatial planning, and global development targets. His current research is concerned with the practical role of quantitative analysis in public policy and environmental governance.
Mathematical tools are increasingly being applied to domains that once seemed un-quantifiable, including conservation policy and international governance. Recent advances in data availability and natural language processing have created new opportunities to examine how institutions make decisions and respond to environmental change. We should expect to see a proliferation of these approaches in the future, and so it’s an opportune time to consider where the field of quantitative policy analysis is heading, and what sorts of interpretive guardrails are needed. I will begin by situating these recent developments within the longer history of mathematics extending into new domains. Mathematical approaches can bring precision and predictive ambition to problems that are otherwise approached through qualitative methods. However, these benefits come with costs. Quantification necessarily depends on abstraction, on removing nuance and detail. In physical and biological systems, abstractions can reveal underlying and general mechanisms, such as gravity, diffusion, natural
selection. In human decision-making, it is less clear that comparable mechanisms exist, or that they can be separated from their political, legal, and institutional contexts. Using recent examples from Antarctic governance, I will argue that quantitative analysis should not and cannot replace qualitative expertise, but must rather work in tension with it. Mathematical modelling can ask sharp questions, but the proposed answers must be circumscribed by
qualitative insights. The central challenge is therefore interdisciplinary: how to use quantitative methods to reveal structure in institutional behaviour, without allowing abstraction to obscure the context that may determine outcomes.
Bella Duncan
Bella Duncan is a Senior Research Fellow in the Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, and Senior Environmental Geochemist at Earth Sciences New Zealand. She is the lead scientist for the ESNZ/VUW Organic Geochemistry Laboratory. Bella’s research uses molecular fossils to investigate environmental change and ancient climate in Antarctica, the Southern Ocean and Aotearoa New Zealand, including as lead organic geochemist for the SWAIS-2C (Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2 Degrees of warming) sediment core drilling project. Bella was awarded the 2024 Royal
Society Te Apārangi Hamilton Award for early career research excellence in science for her work reconstructing 45 million years of ocean temperature change around Antarctica.
Chemical time capsules: What can molecular fossils tell us about past, present and future environmental change in Antarctica?
Molecular fossils, or biomarkers, are the chemical remnants of life on earth. Living organisms synthesise molecules that can be deposited in different geological archives when they die. Molecular fossils can be used to reconstruct many aspects of the environment in the past, including what life was present, air and ocean temperatures, depositional histories, human impacts, and how processes like the hydrological and carbon cycles operated. Here, I’ll introduce how we use molecular fossils to understand how the environment and climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has transformed through time, from an ancient forested continent to the rapidly changing polar environment of today.
Sally Lau
Sally Lau is a post-doctoral research fellow with Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future at James Cook University. Her work focuses on investigating the evolutionary genomics of Antarctic seafloor invertebrates and applying this knowledge to address questions about species evolution, conservation, and past Antarctica’s physical history. Her work recently won the 2025 Eureka Prize for Excellence in Interdisciplinary Scientific Research. She has received national and international fellowships and awards that have supported her work across disciplines critical to advancing Antarctic science (e.g., Australian Academy of Science Rod Rickards Fellowship, Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Instability and Threshold in Antarctica Fellowship).
Protecting the blueprints of Antarctic marine life – victims of circumstance and masters
of their destiny alike
There are many biological wonders that showcase the remarkable resilience of Antarctic marine life. For example, at any given moment, Antarctic octopuses are rewriting their RNA to endure the cold. The Southern Ocean has been an evolutionary arena for animal adaptation to change, enabling them to persist long-term through Plio-Pleistocene climate fluctuations. Emerging results from recent Australian Antarctic expeditions will deepen our understanding of how past experiences shaped adaptation and evolution. While we continue to explore the extent of which the blueprints of life, i.e. genomes, have primed animals for change, we can leverage evolutionary ecology to further unpack the dimensionality of threats at the genomic level. Then, by focusing on the principle of protecting ecosystem integrity, there are feasible
pathways to ensure Antarctic animals – victims of circumstance and masters of their destiny alike – are given their best chance to face existing and emerging threats under the current climate, regardless of uncertainties.
Patricia Miloslavich
Dr. Patricia Miloslavich is a marine biologist and oceanographer and Program Lead of the East Antarctic Monitoring Program at the Australian Antarctic Division. The program is focused in delivering coordinated, long-term observations of key environmental and
biological variables across East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean to improve
understanding of ecosystem change and inform decision making. With over 35 years of international experience, Dr. Miloslavich has held leadership roles including Executive Director of the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), International Project Officer for the Biology and Ecosystems Panel of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), Co-chair of the UN Ocean Decade Vision 2030 Working Group #7 to Expand the Global Ocean Observing System, President of the International Association for Biological Oceanography (IABO), and Senior Scientist for the Census of Marine Life Program. She was a Full Professor at Universidad Simón Bolívar in Venezuela, mentoring students, and leading research in marine science for over 25 years, fostering multinational networks and collaborations. With over 120 scientific publications, she is recognised as a leading voice in international ocean science and for her impact at the science–policy interface, having
contributed to global policy assessments such as the UN World Ocean Assessment I and II, and to the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), where she was CLA of the first Global Assessment and currently co-chairs the Monitoring Assessment. Dr. Miloslavich was honoured with the Lorenzo Mendoza Fleury Science Award (Venezuela’s National Science Award) and appointed to the Latin American Academy of Sciences. An active science communicator engaging policymakers, the media, and the public
worldwide, she has delivered keynote addresses and participated in high-level panels at major international conferences and United Nations events.
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/science/meet-our-scientists/dr-patricia-miloslavich/
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=peAqI_4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
Australia’s Antarctic monitoring activities began in the late 1940s and were initially focused on weather, atmospheric physics, and glaciology. Over decades, it expanded into multidisciplinary observations across the Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions, covering wildlife, ocean and atmospheric processes, and ice dynamics. Although substantial long-term data have been collected and managed by the Australian Antarctic Data Centre, a 2021 review found efforts were often uncoordinated, leading to data gaps and limited comparability. In response, the East Antarctic Monitoring Program was established in 2022 to improve coordination, integrate data collection and analysis, and align outputs with policy and operational needs. Metadata audits show a strong emphasis on biological, oceanic, and cryospheric data, with particular focus on vertebrate species.
Currently, monitoring activities are distributed across research stations, each targeting
specific systems based on local infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystems—for example, wildlife studies at Macquarie Island and atmospheric measurements at Davis Station. Recent campaigns have focused on establishing new environmental baselines in the Denman Glacier region and Heard and McDonald Islands, complemented by routine data collection from the RSV Nuyina.
Looking ahead, the 2025–2035 Australian Antarctic Science Decadal Strategy prioritises integrated, long-term monitoring and multidisciplinary programs as essential for
understanding climate change, biodiversity, and human impacts. Planned implementation includes sustained observations and targeted campaigns designed to meet both scientific and policy needs.
Virtual Speaker
Yu Wang
Yu Wang is a PhD candidate at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, and an incoming postdoctoral scholar at the University of Chicago, researching Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, subglacial hydrology, and their implications for future sea-level rise. For his PhD, he uses numerical ice-flow models to examine the stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet—particularly the Wilkes Subglacial Basin—and how subglacial water systems can accelerate irreversible ice loss. His work has appeared in journals including Nature Communications and The Cryosphere, and contributes to international efforts such as ISMIP6 and the WilkesMIP model intercomparison project. Beyond research, Yu is actively exploring new ways to communicate Antarctic science to wider audiences—most recently by creating 3D ICE, an interactive cryosphere explorer that visualises the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets in 3D.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet may contribute multiple meters of global sea-level rise in coming centuries. Targeted geoengineering interventions, such as subglacial water extraction ('bed-drying'), have been proposed to increase basal friction and slow the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers. However, the efficacy of such interventions remains unquantified. Here, we use a fully coupled ice-hydrology model to evaluate bed-drying in the vulnerable Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica. We show that removing basal water has minimal impact on mitigating sea-level rise and can paradoxically accelerate ice mass loss. Under natural conditions, abundant meltwater sustains efficient subglacial channels that act as pressure sinks, enhancing basal friction. Bed-drying starves and collapses this channelized network, forcing residual water into an inefficient, pressurized distributed sheet that artificially lubricates the bed. Our simulations suggest that successful interventions would require highly dynamic, spatially optimized extraction strategies, while a bad strategy could lead to instabilities and glacier surging. Ultimately, disrupting the intrinsic self-regulating mechanisms of subglacial drainage carries systemic glaciological risks.
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